Ten months into his second term, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings reveal a sharply divided nation. While Trump continues to enjoy strong support in deeply Republican areas, the picture looks much bleaker in battleground and blue states. A new Civiqs poll lays out the state-by-state numbers—and they could have serious implications heading into the 2026 midterms.
Let’s break down what this means, where Trump’s approval is rising, where it’s tanking, and why it all matters.
Table of Contents
Divide
Across the country, Trump’s approval rating shows clear geographic and partisan splits. His national net approval is +39 percent, but his net disapproval stands even higher at 56 percent—a sign that while his base is solid, he’s losing support elsewhere.
The states with the strongest pro-Trump sentiments are mostly in the Mountain West and South. But swing states, which played a key role in the 2024 election, are giving him the cold shoulder.
Here’s what the numbers look like.
Strongholds
In several red states, Trump’s support remains solid—and in some cases, even growing. According to the data, these are the states with positive net approval ratings:
| State | Net Approval |
|---|---|
| Wyoming | +34% |
| West Virginia | +27% |
| Idaho | +23% |
| North Dakota | +18% |
| Montana | +17% |
| Oklahoma | +17% |
| Alabama | +16% |
| South Dakota | +16% |
| Arkansas | +14% |
| Kentucky | +12% |
| Utah | +12% |
In these states, Trump’s base remains as loyal as ever, reflecting long-standing Republican dominance and cultural alignment with the president’s political messaging.
Opposition
On the flip side, Trump faces heavy opposition in many blue states, where his net approval ratings are deep underwater:
| State | Net Approval |
|---|---|
| Hawaii | -55% |
| Vermont | -50% |
| Maryland | -44% |
| Massachusetts | -42% |
| California | -40% |
| Rhode Island | -40% |
| Oregon | -36% |
| Washington | -36% |
| New York | -32% |
| Illinois | -29% |
These numbers suggest a persistent and perhaps deepening partisan divide. Notably, these are also states with large urban populations and traditionally Democratic voting records.
Battlegrounds
The real concern for Trump and the GOP? Swing states. The Civiqs poll shows net-negative approval ratings in every major battleground state from 2024. Here’s where he stands now:
| State | Net Approval |
|---|---|
| Nevada | -15% |
| Michigan | -15% |
| Georgia | -14% |
| Pennsylvania | -13% |
| Arizona | -12% |
| Wisconsin | -11% |
| North Carolina | -8% |
| Florida | -6% |
| Texas | -6% |
| Ohio | -6% |
This matters. These are the states that decide elections, and Trump’s numbers show he’s losing ground in places that once supported him or leaned red.
Context
So, why do these numbers matter so much?
Historically, presidents with approval ratings below 50% tend to suffer major losses during midterm elections. And with Trump’s current numbers well under that threshold—combined with clear disapproval in swing states—Republicans could be heading into a tough 2026.
Polling expert Nate Silver commented, “Trump’s disapproval rating now exceeds what we saw at a similar point in his first term.” Meanwhile, GOP strategist Kristen Soltis Anderson pointed out a bigger concern: “Trump is great at turning out voters. The problem is he’s also great at turning out Democrats.”
So, while Trump energizes his base, he might be motivating the opposition just as much—if not more.
Trends
Polling data shows Trump’s overall approval has declined since mid-September. Aggregated data from The New York Times and RealClearPolitics shows a steady dip, and a recent Fox News poll reported that only 38% approve of his economic performance—a key issue for midterm voters.
GOP pollster Daron Shaw summed it up: “People are struggling to afford necessities and blaming those in charge.”
That sentiment, whether fair or not, is shaping public perception—and could define the 2026 election cycle.
What’s Next
With the 2026 midterms approaching fast, Trump’s team faces a tough road ahead. While he still commands loyalty in conservative strongholds, the swing states that determine the balance of power are increasingly unfavorable.
If these trends hold, Republicans could lose key seats in Congress—especially in competitive districts where Trump’s approval ratings are a liability rather than an asset.
The bottom line? Trump’s national presence remains strong, but unless he can flip the script in battleground states, the midterms may not go his way.
FAQs
Where is Trump most popular now?
Trump’s approval is highest in Wyoming (+34%) and West Virginia.
Which state disapproves of Trump most?
Hawaii has the lowest approval, with a -55% net rating.
How is Trump doing in swing states?
He’s underwater in all major battleground states, including PA and MI.
What is Trump’s national approval rating?
His approval averages around 39-42%, with 56% disapproval.
Could this affect the 2026 midterms?
Yes, low approval often leads to midterm losses for presidents.
